{"id":528282,"date":"2026-05-05T07:01:49","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T13:01:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/billieparkernoticias.com\/?p=528282"},"modified":"2026-05-05T07:01:49","modified_gmt":"2026-05-05T13:01:49","slug":"impacto-del-subsidio-a-las-gasolinas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fronteraveracruz.com\/?p=528282","title":{"rendered":"Impacto del subsidio a las gasolinas"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li><strong>IMPRONTA.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>\u00a0\/ <\/strong><strong>Carlos Miguel Acosta Bravo \/<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>El impacto fiscal inmediato y la capacidad de sostener el subsidio si el petr\u00f3leo vuelve a encarecerse en el mercado mundial como consecuencia de la Guerra Ir\u00e1n- Israel- Estados Unidos y que provoc\u00f3 el cierre del canal de\u00a0 Ormuz. El subsidio de\u00a0<strong>11,700 mdp en marzo<\/strong>\u00a0implica tres lecturas principales:<\/p>\n<p><strong>En base a informaci\u00f3n publicada en El Economista, en primer lugar se registra una \u00a0menor recaudaci\u00f3n inmediata. <\/strong>Lo cual es dinero que Hacienda deja de cobrar v\u00eda IEPS para evitar un \u201cgasolinazo\u201d. En enero-marzo, el IEPS a gasolinas recaud\u00f3\u00a0<strong>115,444 mdp<\/strong>, aun con est\u00edmulos; pero marzo ya mostr\u00f3 una presi\u00f3n fuerte por el alza petrolera ligada a Medio Oriente.<\/p>\n<p><strong>En segundo \u00a0contiene inflaci\u00f3n, pero encarece la pol\u00edtica fiscal.<\/strong> Ayuda a frenar aumentos en transporte, alimentos y mercanc\u00edas, sobre todo por el di\u00e9sel; sin embargo, reduce margen para gasto social, obra p\u00fablica o apoyo a Pemex.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Por \u00faltimo,en tercer lugar se encuentra \u00a0el riesgo que puede aumentar si Ormuz mantiene caro el petr\u00f3leo.<\/strong> Hacienda ya elev\u00f3 est\u00edmulos para mayo: Magna\u00a0<strong>38.08%<\/strong>, Premium\u00a0<strong>26.53%<\/strong>\u00a0y di\u00e9sel\u00a0<strong>60.76%<\/strong>, lo que indica que el costo mensual podr\u00eda superar los 11,700 mdp si la crisis se prolonga.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00bfCu\u00e1nto tiempo podr\u00eda sostenerlo M\u00e9xico? <\/strong>a ese ritmo de\u00a0<strong>11,700 mdp mensuales<\/strong>, el costo anualizado ser\u00eda de unos\u00a0<strong>140 mil mdp<\/strong>. M\u00e9xico podr\u00eda sostenerlo\u00a0<strong>varios meses e incluso el resto del a\u00f1o<\/strong>, pero con costo fiscal importante.<\/p>\n<p>Pero si el subsidio sube a un escenario de\u00a0<strong>20 mil a 25 mil mdp mensuales<\/strong>, por petr\u00f3leo caro y mayor apoyo al di\u00e9sel, la presi\u00f3n se vuelve seria en\u00a0<strong>cuatro a seis meses<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>En un escenario extremo, con subsidio casi total al IEPS, el costo podr\u00eda acercarse a\u00a0<strong>35 mil-40 mil mdp mensuales<\/strong>, parecido al potencial recaudatorio mensual del IEPS a combustibles. Ah\u00ed el margen ser\u00eda de apenas\u00a0<strong>dos o tres meses <\/strong>antes de que el gobierno mexicano tenga que elegir entre recortar gasto, endeudarse m\u00e1s, usar ingresos petroleros extraordinarios o permitir aumentos graduales en combustibles.<\/p>\n<p><strong>En s\u00edntesis,<\/strong>\u00a0M\u00e9xico puede aguantar el subsidio en el corto plazo, pero las finanzas p\u00fablicas no permiten hacerlo \u00a0indefinidamente. Si la incertidumbre por Ormuz dura semanas, es manejable; si dura varios meses, el subsidio pasar\u00e1 de ser un \u201ccolch\u00f3n antiinflacionario\u201d a un importante problema fiscal.<\/p>\n<p>Comente u opine a:<br \/>\ncacostabravo@yahoo.com.mx<\/p>\n<p><em>Maestro en Comunicaci\u00f3n por la Universidad Iberoamericana. Form\u00f3 parte\u00a0 del cuerpo acad\u00e9mico en comunicaci\u00f3n en la Ibero y en la Universidad An\u00e1huac, campus norte CDMX.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IMPRONTA. \u00a0\/ Carlos Miguel Acosta Bravo \/ El impacto fiscal inmediato y la capacidad de sostener el subsidio si el petr\u00f3leo vuelve a encarecerse en el mercado mundial como consecuencia de la Guerra Ir\u00e1n- Israel- Estados Unidos y que provoc\u00f3 el cierre del canal de\u00a0 Ormuz. El subsidio de\u00a011,700 mdp en marzo\u00a0implica tres lecturas principales:&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":514765,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_kad_post_transparent":"","_kad_post_title":"","_kad_post_layout":"","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"_kad_post_classname":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[15607,114,18],"tags":[10126,8103],"class_list":["post-528282","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-impronta","category-ellos-columnistas","category-noticias-de-ultima-hora","tag-carlos-miguel-acosta-bravo","tag-subsidio"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Impacto del subsidio a las gasolinas - Frontera Veracruz<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fronteraveracruz.com\/?p=528282\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_MX\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Impacto del subsidio a las gasolinas - Frontera Veracruz\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"IMPRONTA. \u00a0\/ Carlos Miguel Acosta Bravo \/ El impacto fiscal inmediato y la capacidad de sostener el subsidio si el petr\u00f3leo vuelve a encarecerse en el mercado mundial como consecuencia de la Guerra Ir\u00e1n- Israel- Estados Unidos y que provoc\u00f3 el cierre del canal de\u00a0 Ormuz. 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