{"id":518795,"date":"2026-03-03T06:55:10","date_gmt":"2026-03-03T12:55:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/billieparkernoticias.com\/?p=518795"},"modified":"2026-03-03T06:55:10","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T12:55:10","slug":"impacto-de-la-guerra-eu-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fronteraveracruz.com\/?p=518795","title":{"rendered":"Impacto de la Guerra EU-IR\u00c1N ."},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>*IMPRONTA<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\/ Carlos Miguel Acosta Bravo \/<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>La guerra entre Estados Unidos e Israel contra Ir\u00e1n, que escal\u00f3 el 28 de febrero de 2026 con ataques a\u00e9reos coordinados contra Teher\u00e1n y otras ciudades (incluyendo la muerte confirmada del ayatol\u00e1 Jamenei), genera un shock de oferta en petr\u00f3leo por disrupciones en el Estrecho de Ormuz y exportaciones iran\u00edes, elevando precios globales del crudo de 8 a 13% iniciales y presionando la econom\u00eda mexicana v\u00eda importaciones de combustibles. Esto impacta el tipo de cambio (peso m\u00e1s d\u00e9bil), inflaci\u00f3n y crecimiento, en un reacomodo geopol\u00edtico que favorece a productores como M\u00e9xico a corto plazo pero eleva riesgos globales de recesi\u00f3n.<\/p>\n<p>El impacto en petr\u00f3leo y econom\u00eda mexicana ha significado hasta el momento shock en oferta petrolera, pues \u00a0Ir\u00e1n \u00a0que es el 4\u00b0 productor OPEP con \u00a03.2 millones de barriles diarios \u00a0ya redujo exportaciones de un \u00a020 a 30%. Adem\u00e1s est\u00e1 vigente la \u00a0amenaza de cierre del Estrecho de Ormuz \u00a0por el cual circula el 20% del comercio mar\u00edtimo global de crudo, lo cual podr\u00eda elevar precios desde \u00a090 a 120 d\u00f3lares por barril, con el petr\u00f3leo Brent saltando un 10% de manera inicial.<\/p>\n<p>Los efectos directos para M\u00e9xico, sus ingresos positivos. Las \u00a0exportaciones petroleras \u00a0de 1.6 millones de barriles diarios \u00a0generan un incremento adicional de 10 a 15 mil millones de d\u00f3lares extra si el crudo promedia 85 a 100 d\u00f3lares, impulsando las finanzas p\u00fablicas \u00a0que actualmente representan el 35% de ingresos federales de hidrocarburos.<\/p>\n<p>Los costos negativos podr\u00edan traducirse con la consideraci\u00f3n de que M\u00e9xico importa hasta el 70% de gasolina y di\u00e9sel por hasta 500 mil barriles por d\u00eda ; lo cua podr\u00eda representar un alza de 10 d\u00f3lares por barril. En consecuencia \u00a0podr\u00eda sumarse una cifra acumulada de \u00a05 a 8 mil millones anuales a subsidios , que actualmente ascienden a \u00a0300 mil millones de pesos, presionando de esta manera un d\u00e9ficit fiscal hasta por el \u00a05.5% PIB.<\/p>\n<p>En materia de crecimiento e inflaci\u00f3n, el \u00a0PIB pierde 0.3 a 0.5 puntos por costos energ\u00e9ticos por transporte y manufactura: La \u00a0inflaci\u00f3n podr\u00eda subir 0.5 hasta 1 punto (a 4.5\u20135%), forzando al Banco de M\u00e9xico \u00a0a pausar recortes de tasas.<\/p>\n<p>La incertidumbre geopol\u00edtica global est\u00e1 propiciando un nuevo reacomodo mundial, la OPEP \u00a0respondi\u00f3\u00a0 con el anunci\u00f3 de que Arabia Saudita y Rusia podr\u00edan elevar producci\u00f3n en m\u00e1s de 2 millones de barriles diarios, lo cual podr\u00eda \u00a0moderar los precios, en consecuencia M\u00e9xico gana en cuota pero pierde en subsidios.<\/p>\n<p>Existe tambi\u00e9n el riesgo de una recesi\u00f3n, \u00a0EE.UU. \u00a0que es un aliado clave distrae recursos militares y econ\u00f3micos. Las \u00a0cadenas globales con semiconductores y \u00a0autos, podr\u00edan \u00a0sufrir \u00a0si China entra indirectamente.<\/p>\n<p>Se ha puesto al Nearshoring en jaque, los \u00a0inversionistas pausan M\u00e9xico por \u201criesgo energ\u00e9tico\u201d , hay que tener presente que Pemex exporta a EE.UU., con una inversi\u00f3n extranjera directa que de manera autom\u00e1tica ha sido recortada en \u00a02026 de un \u00a010 al 15%.<\/p>\n<p>Las oportunidades para M\u00e9xico, la neutralidad diplom\u00e1tica \u00a0que no condena ataques y que actualmente con un \u00a0crudo barato para refiner\u00edas, lo \u00a0posicionan como proveedor estable, \u00a0pero inflaci\u00f3n y d\u00f3lar fuerte erosionan la competitividad \u00a0exportadora.<\/p>\n<p>En s\u00edntesis, la guerra para M\u00e9xico es\u00a0 negativa en el \u00a0corto plazo\u00a0 y podr\u00eda representar una inflaci\u00f3n de entre 3 a 5 puntos, podr\u00eda tambi\u00e9n representar que PIB \u00a0\u00a0disminuya &#8211; 0.5%, y que el peso se incremente hasta 21 pesos por USD, con ganancia fiscal petrolera compensatoria pero insuficiente; reacomodo geopol\u00edtico favorece a productores OPEP pero eleva riesgos globales, forzando a Banxico\/SHCP a intervenciones (swaps, subastas). La duraci\u00f3n clave radica si es menor de 4 semanas por decisi\u00f3n del presidente estadounidense Donald Trump, significando un \u00a0impacto transitorio; y si es prolongada podr\u00eda acrecentarse\u00a0 la recesi\u00f3n mexicana en\u00a0 2026.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Comente u opine a:<br \/>\ncacostabravo@yahoo.com.mx<\/p>\n<p><em>Maestro en Comunicaci\u00f3n por la Universidad Iberoamericana. Form\u00f3 parte\u00a0 del cuerpo acad\u00e9mico en comunicaci\u00f3n en la Ibero y en la Universidad An\u00e1huac, campus norte CDMX.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>*IMPRONTA \/ Carlos Miguel Acosta Bravo \/ La guerra entre Estados Unidos e Israel contra Ir\u00e1n, que escal\u00f3 el 28 de febrero de 2026 con ataques a\u00e9reos coordinados contra Teher\u00e1n y otras ciudades (incluyendo la muerte confirmada del ayatol\u00e1 Jamenei), genera un shock de oferta en petr\u00f3leo por disrupciones en el Estrecho de Ormuz y&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":514765,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_kad_post_transparent":"","_kad_post_title":"","_kad_post_layout":"","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"_kad_post_classname":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[15607,114,18],"tags":[10126,2111],"class_list":["post-518795","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-impronta","category-ellos-columnistas","category-noticias-de-ultima-hora","tag-carlos-miguel-acosta-bravo","tag-guerra"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - 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