{"id":167163,"date":"2025-01-31T18:34:14","date_gmt":"2025-02-01T00:34:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latiajusta.com.mx\/?p=167163"},"modified":"2025-01-31T18:34:14","modified_gmt":"2025-02-01T00:34:14","slug":"sp-advierte-que-los-aranceles-de-trump-podrian-llevar-a-mexico-a-la-recesion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fronteraveracruz.com\/?p=167163","title":{"rendered":"S&P advierte que los aranceles de Trump podr\u00edan llevar a M\u00e9xico a la recesi\u00f3n"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

**EE.UU. podr\u00eda llevar a M\u00e9xico a una recesi\u00f3n, afectando principalmente al sector manufacturero y debilitando el PIB<\/span><\/h1>\n

La imposici\u00f3n de un arancel del 25 % a las exportaciones mexicanas por parte de Estados Unidos podr\u00eda empujar a la econom\u00eda de M\u00e9xico a una recesi\u00f3n en 2025, advirti\u00f3 un informe de\u00a0S&P Global Inteligencia de Mercado\u00a0emitido este viernes.<\/strong><\/p>\n

De acuerdo con la firma, la medida afectar\u00eda principalmente al sector manufacturero, provocando una ca\u00edda en las exportaciones y un debilitamiento del\u00a0producto interno bruto (PIB)<\/strong>\u00a0hasta 2026, cuando tambi\u00e9n se tiene prevista la revisi\u00f3n del\u00a0Tratado M\u00e9xico, Estados Unidos y Canad\u00e1 (T-MEC).<\/strong><\/p>\n

Al ser Estados Unidos el principal socio comercial de M\u00e9xico,<\/strong>\u00a0con m\u00e1s del 80% de sus exportaciones dirigidas al mercado estadounidense, el informe prev\u00e9 que M\u00e9xico responder\u00e1 con una tarifa del 10% a una limitada gama de productos, en medio de la confirmaci\u00f3n del presidente Donald Trump de aplicar un arancel del 25% como medida para\u00a0contener la migraci\u00f3n o reducir el narcotr\u00e1fico<\/strong>\u00a0a partir de este s\u00e1bado 1 de febrero.<\/p>\n

Impacto en el crecimiento del PIB y el empleo en M\u00e9xico<\/b><\/h2>\n

S&P<\/strong>\u00a0proyecta que la aplicaci\u00f3n de aranceles llevar\u00eda a una contracci\u00f3n del\u00a0crecimiento del PIB en 2025,<\/strong>\u00a0con una desaceleraci\u00f3n marcada en el sector exportador, el cual es un pilar clave de la econom\u00eda mexicana.<\/p>\n

En este sentido, proyect\u00f3 una\u00a0contracci\u00f3n de casi un 1%<\/strong>\u00a0a partir del tercer trimestre, acompa\u00f1ada de una\u00a0desaceleraci\u00f3n<\/strong>\u00a0en la primera mitad del a\u00f1o, hasta cerrar el a\u00f1o con una ca\u00edda cercana al 2%, pese al alza por encima del 0.5% estimado en su escenario base.<\/p>\n

Para 2026, el crecimiento se mantendr\u00eda estancado, reflejando la persistencia de los desaf\u00edos econ\u00f3micos derivados de la guerra comercial, en medio de la renegociaci\u00f3n del\u00a0tratado de Norteam\u00e9rica, el T-MEC.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Otro de los efectos esperados es el aumento en la tasa de desempleo, impulsado por la\u00a0desaceleraci\u00f3n del sector manufacturero.<\/strong><\/p>\n

La menor demanda externa afectar\u00eda la producci\u00f3n en f\u00e1bricas y la inversi\u00f3n privada, lo que, a su vez, aumentar\u00eda el desempleo,<\/strong>\u00a0que se encuentra en m\u00ednimos hist\u00f3ricos en el pa\u00eds.<\/p>\n

Devaluaci\u00f3n del peso y ca\u00edda del consumo<\/b><\/h2>\n

El informe tambi\u00e9n destaca que el tipo de cambio podr\u00eda alcanzar los\u00a022.28 pesos por d\u00f3lar a finales de 2025<\/strong>, en comparaci\u00f3n con los 21.30 pesos del escenario base actual.<\/p>\n

Esto ocasionar\u00eda una menor entrada de divisas por exportaciones y a un\u00a0estrechamiento del diferencial de tasas de inter\u00e9s entre M\u00e9xico y Estados Unidos.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Asimismo, el consumo privado sufrir\u00eda un impacto negativo debido a la\u00a0desaceleraci\u00f3n de las remesas,<\/strong>\u00a0las cuales han sido un motor clave del gasto en los hogares mexicanos.<\/p>\n

Con un menor flujo de dinero desde Estados Unidos, el reporte espera que el\u00a0crecimiento del consumo sea inferior a las proyecciones anteriores.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Mientras tanto, el Gobierno de M\u00e9xico ha admitido que ha evaluado estrategias para mitigar el impacto de una posible\u00a0guerra comercial<\/strong>\u00a0con su principal socio comercial, al tiempo que la presidenta mexicana, Claudia Sheinbaum, ha dicho que M\u00e9xico tiene \u201cplan a, plan b y plan c\u201d ante la medida unilateral de Trump.<\/p>\n

Con informaci\u00f3n de EFE.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

**EE.UU. podr\u00eda llevar a M\u00e9xico a una recesi\u00f3n, afectando principalmente al sector manufacturero y debilitando el PIB La imposici\u00f3n de un arancel del 25 % a las exportaciones mexicanas por parte de Estados Unidos podr\u00eda empujar a la econom\u00eda de M\u00e9xico a una recesi\u00f3n en 2025, advirti\u00f3 un informe de\u00a0S&P Global Inteligencia de Mercado\u00a0emitido este…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":167164,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_kad_post_transparent":"","_kad_post_title":"","_kad_post_layout":"","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"_kad_post_classname":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-167163","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-justamente-las-noticias","category-lo-mas-cabron"],"yoast_head":"\nS&P advierte que los aranceles de Trump podr\u00edan llevar a M\u00e9xico a la recesi\u00f3n - 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